“People tend to overestimate what can be done in one year and to underestimate what can be done in five to ten years”
Joseph Carl Robnett Licklider said this word to the public in 1965.
Then who is Joseph Carl Robnett Licklider?
Joseph Carl Robnett Licklider (March 11, 1915 – June 26, 1990), known simply as J.C.R. or “Lick” was an American computer scientist, considered one of the most important figures in computer science and general computing history.
Even he told this word to the public in 1965, his philosophy and this wisdom still works in 21st century. Everyday Gizmodo or TechCrunch reports on the new tech trends. But the main trends started 5 years ago. It has been developed into the main trends for 5 years period.
Social media such as Facebook or Twitter were founded in 2005 and 2006. IPhone has become on outstanding smartphone device these days. But it was launched in 2007. Before that Apple Inc. has prepared for the iTunes as iPod from 2001. It had spent more than 5 years and it is becoming bigger and bigger.
“My own theory is that we are in the middle of a dramatic and broad technological and economic shift in which software companies are poised to take over large swathes of economies”
That is not my theory. It is the theory by Marc Andreesen, the founder of Netscape. He wrote these words on his essay, which was published over Wall Street Journal in Aug 2011.
Trends do not suddenly appear to us. It has taken more than 5 years. After that it is eating the world, usually these days it come out as SW or Solutions. So to my readers, please keep focused from the past. Not the recent trends in 1 year. That might be helpful to understand this geek world.