12 years cycle: We are waiting for the next innovator

Around decades there has been innovation and revolutionary products. The product itself changed the market. There will be no innovation or revolutionary products in smartphone market or tablet PC market. Only improved product shall be introduced.

It is the theory of my own. But I will tell you why.

Over 30 years in IT field, there was the product which turned over the market itself. Let’s start the story.

1. In 1983. Macintosh 128k by Apple

Before Macintosh, to use computer itself people had to remind up the command words and functions to use computer. Of course the purpose of device itself was limited for architecture, computer programmers and technical fields. But after this device, the limitation had been widened. The SW like games, word processor, SW for design were shipped to market. Instead of using commands, people were convenient with twice clicks. MS copied the Mac OS and launched it as Windows. Computer itself has widened its market base from experts to ordinary people. But something that may link these SW was not here until 1995

2. In 1995, Windows 95 by Microsoft

Starting with ‘Start’ button on the bottom line, MS launched Windows 95 in 1995. Mac OS itself provided integrated environment for users. But most of the PC users were using separated environment between MS-DOS and Windows 3.1. They had to type win.exe to access Windows. Also they had to find the folders to activate the various SW inside the Windows. But after launch of Windows 95, people realized the OS itself as a platform for starting the SW and various functions. With the launch of Windows 95, many device based on this kind of stuff has been launched.

Devices like Palm’s PDA, MP3 player from iRiver and small tablet PC for internet and playing movies has shipped to market. But people were inconvenient taking all these devices. They had only two hands. Something that may do integration on these device were needed.

Also internet itself had been a big part of economy in the world. Without massive facilities, Enterprises like Amazon, Yahoo and Ebay changed the market rule.

And 12 years had passed.

3. In 2007, iPhone by Apple

I said that people had only two hands to carry something. Steve knew the needs exactly. Starting the “Project Purple” in 2004, Apple launched integrated device for phone, internet and entertainment. Of course iTunes and Appstore helped to boom up the industry. But this was the starting of shift from PCs to mobile device such as smartphones or tablet PCs.

Google announced Android OS to public. Samsung, LG, HTC and Motorola is selling the similar device. Improvement is the point of competition, not revolution or innovation these days.

That is why Apple focused on its HW specs and specific improvement on SW last Wednesday.

The competition of the IT field is now divided in 2 major fields. I think one of these players shall suggest the new model. Or we may expect revolution from the start-ups in garage.

  1. Dedicated server

    It’s silly to believe there is but one cycle upon which the economy rides, when in fact there are multiple and numerous cycles, and of course cycles within cycles, which all combine to make those squiggly lines you see on the charts.

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